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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.