A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
